By Ms. Rachell Bulanadi and Mr. Siddanth Shetty
Aeronautics: The recover of civil aviation coming for 2023
The sector of international aviation is forecasting a return of profits in 2023.
In October 2022 the global aircraft orders increased and the first ten months of the year are the largest orders since 2014. In October 2022, 95 aircraft had been delivered, 51% more than in October 2021.
For the United Kingdom industry it represented an increase of 7% that is estimated to be worth 223£ billion.
This increase in aircraft orders has a positive correlation with the predictions of airline profits. In fact, the IATA (International Air Transport Association) released a forecast on December 6, predicting that airlines will earn a net profit of 4.7$ billion.
After a year of losses (almost 7$ billion) in 2022 the airlines finally see the end of the tunnel because of the bad prediction of the passenger traffic. The reality has been a demanding recovery of 70.6% compared to 82.4% recovery forecasted. Moreover the increase of the price of jet kerosene has played a huge role in the airlines low profits. But airlines managed to reduce the impact of those losses in the year.
2023 will be the first year since 2019 and the Covid 19 pandemic that the sector will make money. Why in 2023? During the first half of 2022, many international borders were still closed. The opening of the latter in the second half of the current year has boosted the demand for travel, hence the flights and consequently the airline revenues. Another main driver of the return of profitability is the cargo market whose revenues are expected to reach 149.4$ billion. However, this forecast is only applicable without economy uncertainty. In fact, there are some risks like the war in Ukraine, the China lockdown for example .
Sources:
Aero mag, “Global aicraft orders rise as recovery continues” [online], available on: Global aircraft orders rise as recovery continues – Aerospace Manufacturing (aero-mag.com) https://www.aero-mag.com/global-aircraft-orders-rise-as-recovery-continues
CNN Business, “Airlines will be making money again in 2023 as travel recovers” by Julia Horowitz and Livvy Doherty [online], available on: Airlines will be making money again in 2023 as travel returns | CNN Business https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/06/business/global-airline-profits-iata/index.html
IATA, “Airline cut losses in 2022; Return to profit in 2023” [online], available on: https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2022-releases/2022-12-06-01/
Ecology: The measures to reach net zero
This week, the Council and the European Parliament have heard an agreement on the revision of the greenhouse gas emission quota exchange (EU-ETS), which was introduced in 2005. The actual system is based on voluntary participation. The international flights departing from Europe will not be included in the agreement. The Community emissions trading system will apply only to intra-europeans flights, including the ones departing from the United Kingdom and from Switzerland.
The agreement contained a progressive end of the free of carbon’s quota. In 2026, all the flight in the Europe will be submitted to the emission carbon market and a part of the profits (the revenues from 5 millions of quotas) will go to the innovation fund.
There will also be the establishment of a SAF system. The SAF system is a program where airlines can have a compensation on the price differential between kerosene and SAF.
Moreover, the IATA wants to put pressure on the development of biofuel. In fact in 2022, the production of SAF is 300 million liters which represents a 200% increase compared to 2021. SAF is the main driver for airlines to reach net zero in 2050. Nowadays, almost 450 000 flights used SAF. Today, there are no alternative power sources all the SAF supply will be derived from biofuel refineries. To reach the goal of 400% increase by 2025, IATA warns States to put in place incentives in SAF production.
Sources:
Air&Cosmos, “Le Parlement et le Conseil européen trouvent un accord sur la révision des ETS” [online], available on:
https://air-cosmos.com/article/le-parlement-et-le-conseil-europeen-trouvent-un-accord-sur-larevision-des-ets-63753
Tourmag, “Aérien: des quotas carbone pour limiter la pollution?” by Jean Da Luz [online], available on: https://www.tourmag.com/Aerien-des-quotas-carbone-pour-limiter-la-pollution_a116593.html
IATA, “2022 SAF production increase 200% – More incentives needed to reach Net Zero” [online], available on: https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2022-releases/2022-12-07-01/
Defense: The retirement of loyal soldiers and the arrival of new
On December 9th, the French National marines held a farewell ceremony for their last two Alouette III helicopters. This helicopter began its military service in 1962. After 60 years of loyal service, the helicopter stows its wings. Before their military services, these helicopters has been used for civil mission, such as heavy load transport and rescue. In the army these helicopters are engaged in missions for anti-submarine warfare. Equipped with torpedoes and sonars they took part in rescue missions and locations and attacks of enemy submarines. In 60 years of service, the fleet of Alouette II of the army has accumulated 328 000 hours of fly.
The fleet of Alouette helicopters will be replaced by the leasing of Dauphin helicopters, by 6 militarized H160 order to Airbus Helicopters. This will be the temporary solution before the arrival of the first of 49 of the H160M Guépard expected for 2029.
While the Alouette III is retiring, Airbus is testing their new Multi-Domain Flight Demo the same day. The Multi-Domain Flight Demo (MDFD) is a new system of control of drones from an aircraft or a helicopter. The demonstration finalized the phase 2 of the programme Future Combat Air System Manned-Unmanned Teaming financed by the Bundeswehr.
The demonstration was led by Airbus in collaboration with the Finnish Air Force, MBDA Deutschland, Patria, HAT.tec and Robonic. The objective was to destroy the anti aircraft defences of fake enemies in order to deploy a special force to go and capture a person.
One aircraft was playing the enemy while another one was playing the command aircraft. The command aircraft take the control of 5 drones, 2 ESM to detect the anti aircraft defenses and 3 EO to register and confirm with images the localisation of the anti aircraft defenses. After the elimination of the aircraft defenses, a helicopter was sent in the zone to
capture the wanted person.
A first in Europe as this capacity is expected to be operational around 2030.
Sources:
20Minutes, “Après 60 ans de service et 328 000 heures de vol, le mythique hélicoptère Alouette se retire” [online], available on:
https://www.20minutes.fr/societe/4014177-20221209-apres-60-ans-service-328-000-heuresvol-mythique-helicoptere-alouette-retire
Air&Cosmos, “L’Alouette III quitte le service actif après 60 ans de bons et loyaux service au sein de la Marine Nationale” by Gaétan Powis [online], available on:
https://air-cosmos.com/article/l-alouette-iii-quitte-le-service-actif-apres-60-ans-de-bons-et-loyaux-services-au-sein-de-la-marine-nationale-63761
Air&Cosmos, “Défense: démonstration multi§domaine réussie pour Aribus” by Gaétan Powis [online], available on:
https://air-cosmos.com/article/defense-demonstration-multi-domaine-reussie-pour-airbus-63759
MD80, “Un large-scale flight demo guidato da Airbus riunisce fighters” by Gaétan Powis [online], available on:
https://www.md80.it/2022/12/09/un-large-scale-flight-demo-guidato-da-airbus-riunisce-fighters-un-elicottero-e-droni/
